Nifty 50 after closing below its 200-day average, since 1997
After close below the 200-day average, NIFTY 50's next-20-trading-day edge over an ordinary day is +0.1 pts in median return and −3.2 pts in hit-rate, from 30 real occasions since 15 Sep 1997 (a repeat within 20 trading days doesn't count twice).
In full: after those 30 occasions, the price was higher 57% of the time 20 trading days later, median +1.3%, against higher 60% of the time, median +1.2%, on an ordinary day in the same period.
What weakens this: the worst historical case below -- a real pattern can still fail on any single occasion.
| After | Occasions | Median | Higher | Ordinary-day median | Ordinary-day higher | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 30 | −0.5% | 43% | +0.4% | 56% | −8.0% | +8.6% |
| 20 trading days | 30 | +1.3% | 57% | +1.2% | 60% | −26.0% | +14.4% |
| 60 trading days | 30 | +1.9% | 60% | +3.2% | 62% | −18.7% | +25.3% |
| 120 trading days | 30 | +6.0% | 70% | +5.7% | 67% | −19.0% | +47.0% |
All 30 occasions
All 30 occasions
| Date | Close | After 20 days | After 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 25,048.65 | +2.1% | −4.6% |
| 20 Dec 2024 | 23,587.50 | −1.0% | −3.2% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | 23,532.70 | +4.8% | −0.6% |
| 28 Feb 2023 | 17,303.95 | −1.3% | +7.1% |
| 28 Sep 2022 | 16,858.60 | +5.5% | +6.9% |
| 19 Apr 2022 | 16,958.65 | −4.2% | −5.8% |
| 24 Feb 2022 | 16,247.95 | +6.0% | −0.5% |
| 26 Feb 2020 | 11,678.50 | −26.0% | −18.0% |
| 30 Jul 2019 | 11,085.40 | −1.2% | +7.1% |
| 4 Oct 2018 | 10,599.25 | −0.4% | +1.8% |
| 19 Mar 2018 | 10,094.25 | +4.3% | +7.1% |
| 15 Nov 2016 | 8,108.45 | +1.4% | +8.1% |
| 27 Apr 2015 | 8,213.80 | +1.5% | +3.8% |
| 11 Jun 2013 | 5,788.80 | +1.2% | −3.4% |
| 4 Apr 2013 | 5,574.75 | +8.4% | +5.8% |
| 26 Jul 2012 | 5,043.00 | +6.1% | +12.9% |
| 4 May 2012 | 5,086.85 | −4.8% | +0.3% |
| 2 May 2011 | 5,701.30 | −4.0% | −0.4% |
| 27 Jan 2011 | 5,604.30 | −6.1% | +4.1% |
| 19 May 2010 | 4,919.65 | +6.4% | +10.2% |
| 11 Feb 2008 | 4,857.00 | +0.2% | +2.1% |
| 19 Jul 2006 | 2,932.75 | +14.4% | +25.3% |
| 7 Jun 2006 | 2,860.45 | +9.7% | +19.9% |
| 14 May 2004 | 1,582.40 | −4.7% | +3.2% |
| 7 Mar 2003 | 1,017.10 | +1.4% | +1.8% |
| 21 May 2002 | 1,049.20 | +2.5% | −7.0% |
| 23 Feb 2001 | 1,320.45 | −12.0% | −10.5% |
| 20 Jul 2000 | 1,424.20 | −4.6% | −18.7% |
| 12 May 2000 | 1,282.80 | +14.4% | +2.8% |
| 18 Nov 1997 | 1,009.80 | −0.7% | −17.4% |
Prices: NSE index closing values (price return, dividends excluded), from 3 Jul 1990 to 9 Oct 2026. Dividends and costs are not included. This describes what happened in the past. It is not a recommendation or a prediction.
NIFTY 50 · what happened after close below the 200-day average · since 1997 -- a real, live-computed answer, shown here as a sample.
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